Garden State Patriot

First, allow me to offer my sincere congratulations to Mr. Christie. I wish him the best, and hope for his success, as he now faces the monumental task of repairing our very broken state. As with any politician, we the people should remain watchful and hold his feet to the fire. When our new governor is on the right course, he will deserve our full support. Conversely, if we feel he is off-course, we should responsibly and contructively say so.

With that said, here are my thoughts on yesterday’s election results.

New Jersey, in my mind, remains a deeply blue state. But even deeply blue states have a breaking point. New Jersey, this year, reached hers. This election is nothing less than a rejection of everything liberal, with voters fed up with an out-of-control, overbearing, overspending, over-taxing government.

Chris Christie’s victory was fueled by this sentiment and, despite a campaign that offered little in the way of specifics, New Jersey voters simply had had enough and opted for change. Christie successfully won over independent voters by a 2:1 margin – and conservatives pushed him well over the top, leading to a surprising 4-point win. Chris Daggett, who was well into double-digits according to some polls, faded badly and only garnered 6% of the vote.

Republicans, no doubt, are a bit euphoric today with Chris Christie’s victory. However, there is reason to temper that enthusiasm.

First and foremost, Chris Christie will still be facing a Democrat legislature. While Christie scored a significant victory, the same could not be said for the party regarding the state assembly races. In a year when the climate was as favorable as could be for Republicans in New Jersey, the party only gained one assembly seat – one.

Additionally, the open space ballot question passed despite opposition from Christie himself. While Christie won by a 4% margin, the ballot question lost by 2% (a 6% swing).

The inability to make inroads in the assembly is troubling to say the least - and speaks to a problem with the party apparatus. Whatever the NJ-GOP’s strategy is with respect to these races, it is failing – and failing miserably. With the election behind us, and the vital 2010 off-year election dead ahead, it is time for serious reflection and change for the NJ-GOP. The solution may not be a simple one, but I believe it begins with giving voters a real, tangible, conservative choice.   

Party chairman, Jay Webber, is certainly in an unenviable position in this respect. With the election behind us, the question remains as to whether Jay will now begin to move the NJ-GOP in a conservative direction. Additionally, we are facing the potential prospect of primary challenges to Reps. Smith, LoBiondo and Lance for their unforgiveable Cap & Trade votes. What happened in NY-23 to Dede Scozzafava could very easily happen with any one of these members of the New Jersey congressional delegation.  

The Christie victory should also teach us a lesson. Despite the misgivings among conservatives regarding Christie’s conservative credentials, on the surface he did run conservatively in many respects. He ran as a fiscal conservative, as well as a social conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage. Whether Christie governs as such is another matter. To the average voter, perception is reality; and I believe the perception was that Christie was at least moderately conservative. As such, the lesson to be learned here is that conservatives can win in New Jersey.

As we look ahead to 2010 and beyond, let’s just hope that this lesson is not lost on the NJ-GOP.

Someone apparently tried to steal this guy’s vote. (h/t Red State via Election Journal)

There have also been reports about ACORN being heavily involved in Corzine’s re-election effort.

Let’s cross our fingers that this doesn’t turn into last year’s Minnesota Senate race.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!

Here are my Election Day predictions. If I get them all right I am heading straight own to AC afterwards!

In the New Jersey governor’s race, Independent candidate Chris Daggett remains the unknown factor. Some polls have shown Daggett with as much as 15% of the vote. But my intuition tells me Christie’s recent attacks on Daggett have hurt him and with Corzine and Christie within the margin of error, many voters will not waste their vote on him upon entering that voting booth. As such I don’t see Daggett getting more than double digits – and I see long-suffering New Jersey taxpayers breaking toward Christie in what will be a squeaker. Final result: Christie 48%, Corzine 46%, Daggett 6%.

In Virginia, a swing state that turned Obama blue last year, we will witness a 180 degree turn. Republican Bob McDonnell will win in a landslide over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Prediction: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44% 

Well, in NY-23, Dede Scozzafava was forced out of this race by conservatives who said she was too liberal. Now, she has proven us quite right with her endorsement of the liberal Bill Owens over conservative Doug Hoffman (Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned?). In any case, with Scozzafava remaining on the ballot one would expect her to still receive some votes. So my prediction for this race is for a Hoffman victory, albeit much closer than recent races in this district. Final results: Hoffmann 51%, Owens 45%, Scozzafava 4%.

A little firestorm has arisen over the past day or so between Independent candidate Chris Daggett and Sarah Palin.

In a radio interview Daggett claimed that national Republicans were pressuring him to drop from the race.

Former New Jersey Environmental Commissioner Chris Daggett said Wednesday morning he received pressure from national Republicans to drop out of the governor’s race.

Republicans worry that Daggett, an independent candidate who is polling in the double-digits, could take enough votes away from former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) to give Gov. Jon Corzine (D) a second term.

Subsequent to this, the Daggett campaign also started pointing the finger specifically at Sarah Palin. This Twitter message appears on the Daggett Twitter page:

RT @KevinGass: I could not make this up. Sarah Palin just asked Chris to pull out of race. Republicans getting scared much? #standup4nj

The tweet does not cite any quote or evidence to support the claim. As best I can tell, the Dagget people are referring to a Facebook post by Palin from the other day. But her post didn’t even mention Daggett. Here is the relevant portion:

Let’s consider the governor’s race in New Jersey. The state has the highest tax burden in the country and the incumbent Democrat governor has only added to the economic burden. He eliminated property tax rebates for middle class homeowners while the sales tax increased. Altogether, taxes on the people in the region have increased by billions of dollars. It’s no surprise that New Jersey has the highest unemployment rate in the region! Thankfully, there is an alternative. Residents there will be better off under an administration that understands the benefits that result when workers are allowed to keep more of what they earn. Watch New Jersey’s economy come alive under new leadership that will put government back on the side of the people! Chris Christie promises this new leadership.

Fortunately, New Jersey’s Democrat governor is being held accountable with the RGA spending $7 million in the New York and Philadelphia media markets telling the truth about a liberal administrative record while highlighting New Jersey’s tax-hiking ways and reminding voters there is an alternative! The NY and Philly markets are the most expensive in the nation though, so the RGA is requesting help to stay on the air. Visit http://www.rga.org/initiatives/comeback-fund/.

Doesn’t seem to me that the Daggett people have a leg to stand on here. And Governor Palin has called them on it:

Despite what candidate Chris Daggett is claiming, I have never contacted him or his campaign. I have never asked him to drop out of the NJ Governor’s race. Now, if a politician is going to play loose with facts like this, the electorate needs to know it.

So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett’s claims are false. I’ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it…

- Sarah Palin

Well, so much for Daggett playing up the idea that he’s more politically pure than Christie and Corzine. This incident shows us that he’s anything but.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!

Hot off the presses! The latest Rasmussen poll breaks down as follows:

Christie – 46%

Corzine – 43%

Daggett – 8%

Last night a group of New Jersey voters appeared on Hannity. The discussion touched on their general feelings about the state of things in the nation and New Jersey, as well as their views on issues like taxation. Later in the focus group session, these voters discussed their opinions of Christie and Corzine while also reacting to some TV ads from both camps.

Overall, the discussion was interesting and enlightening. In listening to these fellow New Jerseyans – regardless of their views (and some did have some radical views, particularly on wealth redistribution) - my sense was that all of them wanted to hear more specific plans from each candidate. They are tired of the bull that goes on and are craving some real leadership. They don’t seem to think they are seeing that from Corzine or Christie in this campaign – and I sure as heck can’t disagree with them.

Here is the discussion in its entirety.

There are numerous polls out there but Rasmussen remains one of the few to be trusted. Their latest poll shows Christie up 46%-43% with Daggett falling back to 7%. With just a week to go I believe this signals that Chris Christie is going to win this election. Only 4% remain undecided and those folks tend to skew in favor of the challenger(s).

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey show Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. While the margin is little changed from a week ago and the week before, the biggest news may be that support for independent candidate Chris Daggett has dropped four points to seven percent (7%). The number of undecided voters is down to four percent (4%).

The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed The (Newark) Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate. Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That’s one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State in hopes of encouraging turnout.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!

As if anyone cares, several newspapers issued their endorsements today. Christie got the nod from  The Press of Atlantic City, the Asbury Park Press of Neptune and the Courier-Post of Cherry Hill. Corzine was endorsed by The Times of Trenton and The Record of Bergen County.

Of course, in the past The Record’s endorsement probably would have carried some weight. Today the paper is lucky to still be in business. Their endorsement today is truly laughable and helps to illustrate just how completely in the tank their editorial board is for Democrats. After all, when the only reason you can come up with to throw your support behind a governor with a 4-year record is to point to his Lt. Governor selection, Loretta Weinberg, it’s pretty safe to say all credibility is gone.

IT IS not a good year to be an incumbent. The nation is reeling from the worst economic conditions arguably since the Great Depression. New Jersey is particularly hard hit. Yet the challenges facing New Jersey existed before the recession and they will not magically disappear with a new governor.

Jon Corzine has not been the governor that most New Jerseyans wanted. They expected the Wizard of Wall Street to make decades of state debt magically disappear. They expected him to eliminate the back-room political dealings that make New Jersey and corruption perfect together. They expected him to have the backbone to stand up to pension-padding cronies.

But New Jerseyans elected, and will elect on Nov. 3, a governor, not a wizard. There is no magic. There are no tricks. It’s a difficult job.

Corzine’s personality is not well-suited for elected office. But his lack of charisma is tempered by a genuine desire to improve public education, expand health coverage and attract new business to New Jersey. In good times, these laudable goals would make him popular. But with public coffers bleeding red, an expansive social agenda is impractical.

The governor does not take advice well and that has crippled his effectiveness. He is too cozy with organized labor. What would be different in a second term can be summed up in two words: Loretta Weinberg.

The state senator from Teaneck is unknown statewide. In North Jersey, she has built a reputation for fighting the system. She says what she thinks and most often, she thinks before she speaks. As the state’s first lieutenant governor, she will be essentially married to Corzine for four years. Weinberg understands how the politics of New Jersey work. Most valuable to the governor is that she can be the “honest broker” the Corzine administration desperately needs to become effective.

Corzine alone has been adrift in the State House. Weinberg is more than a skilled political navigator. She is the compass the Corzine administration has lacked. With Weinberg as lieutenant governor, we believe there will be change.

On Chris Christie, The Record says:

Republican Chris Christie has a different perspective from Corzine on the role of government. Christie has grown in stature during the campaign, despite a barrage of negative advertising from the Corzine camp. We agree with him that government needs to shrink, that New Jersey can no longer afford to be as generous as it has been in the past with public employees, and that the governor must be willing to challenge entrenched special interests.

But Christie’s impressive record as U.S. attorney is no guarantee that he will be the long-sought wizard of Trenton. It will take more than a bully pulpit to pass legislation. We have hungered for more specifics from him as to how he will address an estimated $8 billion deficit in next year’s budget. And while social issues are not paramount on voters’ lists today, we fear that school vouchers, which Christie supports, would ultimately undermine public education. And we would rather Corzine nominate the next justices to the state Supreme Court.

That’s interesting. They agree with Christie that they want government to shrink, but praise Corzine for his willingness to expand it. They want Christie to be specific but don’t require the same of Corzine. Nor do they look to his record of evidence of more failure to come. And they think school vouchers will undermine public education?! Last time I checked our failing schools needed some *udermining.* Does The Record editorial board actually think our public schools are successful? Or are they just as in the tank for the NJEA as Corzine is?

And what of Chris Daggett? Well, he’s just a ‘wild card’ apparently without Corzine’s vast leadership abilities.

The wild card in this campaign has been independent Chris Daggett. He has a plan to expand the sales tax to redistribute the tax burden away from property owners. We are not convinced it can work, but we applaud his innovative approach. Most of all, his presence in this race has made it clear to Democrats and Republicans how weak their respective bases have become.

Daggett has much to offer – independence, government experience and an impressive wit. He belongs in government. He can make New Jersey better but we do not believe he has the right qualities to be the state’s leader during this crisis. An independent may not be beholden to any one party and that is good. But an independent does not command a natural base of support to push through legislative reforms.

So, let’s sum up this endorsement.

The state’s finances are in shambles but, hey, it’s really not Corzine’s fault. And, c’mon, fixing the state’s finances is tough. Sure Jonny really hasn’t shown any leadership in addressing it - but let’s give him another shot because, well, we love all the his big government goodies and social programs he throws our way. Businesses are leaving the state because of his policies, but…but…he cares and wishes they would stay. And, yeah, we know he’s in the back pockets of all the public sector unions who are bleeding taxpayers dry but…but…put we’ll just put that aside. And, oh, yes, nobody really likes the guy, he has the personality of a wet mop, and he can’t schmooze anyone in the legislature, but he’ll send Grandma Weinberg over bake them some cookies and work them over and, voila, everything will be okey dokey! And did we say we hate Republicans and Chris Daggett’s a joke?

Honestly, how can anyone take The Record’s editorial board seriously after this ‘endorsement?’ Seems to me it’s about time to just close up shop altogether. Or at least be more upfront and put a (D) after their moniker.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!

I’ve heard of backhanded compliments. Well, this is what we call a backhanded endorsement.

The Star-Ledger today endorses independent candidate Chris Daggett and recommends his election as the next governor of New Jersey.

The newspaper’s decision is less a rejection of Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey. They share responsibility for the state’s current plight.

Only by breaking the hold of the Democratic and Republican mandarins on the governor’s office and putting a rein on their power will the state have any hope for the kind of change needed to halt its downward economic, political and ethical spiral.

New Jersey needs radical change in Trenton. Neither of the major parties is likely to provide it. Daggett’s election would send shock waves through New Jersey’s ossified political system and, we believe, provide a start in a new direction.

It would signal the entrenched leadership of both parties — and the interest groups they regularly represent — that an ill-served and angry electorate demands something better.

The lamentable fact is that the two parties are, themselves, little more than narrow special interests. Their competition for short-term political and/or monetary gain has jeopardized the state’s long-term economic health and left it with a tarnished national reputation.

Where the major parties have differed, their differences have been inconsequential. Where they’ve been the same, their similarities have been destructive.

They have contributed equally to gross overspending in Trenton by consistently pandering to the pay, pension and retirement policies demanded by powerful public employee unions. Democrats have financed the spree with tax hikes, Republicans with borrowed money, and both with pension-fund raids.

How do we now signal them that this has got to stop if not by rejecting their anointed candidates? How if not by electing Chris Daggett?

On Chris Christie:

The most disappointing of the three candidates is Christie. Six months ago he seemed an almost certain winner, a highly successful federal prosecutor facing an embattled governor saddled with a collapsing economy and soaring budget deficits. He could run a rocking-chair campaign, it seemed, make only safe commitments, avoid controversy, and win.

Unfortunately, that’s mostly what Christie has done — a strategy that looks less promising now that his double-digit early lead has melted away.

On Jon Corzine:

Corzine is an eminently decent and likable man, and not without achievement. We especially salute his unflagging commitment to state education and his success in changing the Abbott school aid formula to ensure that money intended to help poor children follows them whether or not they live in specific districts.

But his shortcomings as a leader are serious. They’ve become all too apparent in his dealings with public employee unions, an often unruly Legislature and a Democratic Party that is, at best, an ethically compromised ship and, at worst, harbors a corrupt crew.

The governor may be the nominal leader of his party but there’s mounting evidence its commanding figure is George Norcross, an unelected South Jersey political deal-maker who’s currently rearranging the Democratic leadership in the Senate and Assembly.

Corzine is the chaplain on a pirate ship, not really its captain.

Nice to see the folks at the Star-Ledger couldn’t conceal their true colors entirely. Corzine is ’decent and likable’? <snort>

On a serious note, The Ledger’s rationale is flawed. While their criticism of the 2 major parties has merit, that does not mean that Chris Daggett has the ideas, let alone will have the power, to make the necessary changes in Trenton. They would have been better suited to have made no endorsement at all.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!

Paul Mulshine has an absolute must-read piece today. If for nothing else, it will provide you with an education on property taxes in New Jersey. More importantly, however, Mulshine’s piece explains in stark terms why neither Christie nor Corzine will do anything to address the out-of-control property taxes in New Jersey. As such, it’s also as good an explanation as any as to why so many principled conservatives simply can not bring themselves to support Mr. Christie. Here is a teaser:

It was a fun week for the Star-Ledger editorial board. All three candidates for governor came in to be interviewed about their plans for the state.

The bad news for you the taxpayer is that the top two, Jon Corzine and Chris Christie, made it clear they have no plans to address the issue most important to voters in this state: high suburban property taxes.

You’ll note I employed the modifier “suburban.” That’s because our cities get massive amounts of state aid and their residents pay just a tiny proportion of the cost of government.

As you can see from this Star-Ledger data base, in Newark the residents pay a mere 5 percent of the cost of government. No wonder they don’t mind when the councilmen get big salaries and big cars and the kindergarten teachers make $90,000 and more.

And no wonder they vote Democratic. Governor Corzine has made it clear he’ll keep piling the pork in the urban pork barrel if re-elected.

But what about the suburbs of these cities? Why do they go Democratic by such large margins?

Beats the heck out of me – especially after what I heard Corzine say Thursday.

As you can see in the above video, Corzine gave the outlines of his budget plan during the interview.

And he gave his usual spiel about how under his new school-funding formula “the money follows the child.”

One problem: It doesn’t follow the child if the child lives in a town considered too wealthy to get state aid.

Two such towns are Montclair and West Orange. These towns have what must be the highest property-tax bills on the planet – though it’s difficult to make exact comparisons.

As I noted in a prior column on West Orange, property taxes are so high there that they are approaching the level of the mortgage. If you wanted to buy a condo in West Orange, your would find that the tax bill would likely be just a bit lower than your mortgage payment.

Who in their right mind would buy in such a town? Well, Whoopi Goldberg. But she’s got a lot of dough.

Here’s an example of the absurd disproportion as illustrated by figures from that data base:

 The typical homeowner in Montclair gets a mere $564 in property-tax relief aid on his school tax bill.

Now try and guess how much aid a typical homeowner in Newark gets?

 Twice as much? Five times as much? Ten times as much?

 Nope. Thirty-five times as much.

That’s right. The typical Newark homeowner receives a staggering $19,625 in state school aid against his property-tax bill.

Until we address this imbalance, we will not have property-tax relief. Both Corzine and Christie like to yammer on about non-issues such as municipal consolidation. But the figures don’t lie.

Read the rest here.

Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!