According to Politico, Democrats are becoming increasingly alarmed about their standing with independents. In the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections, Republicans Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie both won independents by roughly a 2:1 margin.
Independents now also have an extremely unfavorable view of this Congress. A Gallup poll shows their approval of the Pelosi-Reid Congress at an abysmal 14%. As I reported last week, only 45% of independents want their representative re-elected. Additionally, according to a CBS poll, Barack Obama’s approval among independents has dropped precipitously since April – from 63% then to 45% now.
All of this obviously bodes quite well for Republicans in 2010.
Here is the story from Politico:
Mounting evidence that independent voters have soured on the Democrats is prompting a debate among party officials about what rhetorical and substantive changes are needed to halt the damage.
Following serious setbacks with independents in off-year elections earlier this month, White House officials attributed the defeats to local factors and said President Barack Obama sees no need to reposition his own image or the Democratic message.
Since then, however, a flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama’s agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.
A Gallup Poll released last week offered a disturbing glimpse about the state of play: just 14 percent of independents approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest figure all year. In just the past few days alone, surveys have shown Democratic incumbents trailing Republicans among independent voters by double-digit margins in competitive statewide contests in places as varied as Connecticut, Ohio and Iowa.
Obama’s own popularity among independents has fallen significantly, too. A CBS News poll Tuesday showed the president’s approval rating among unaligned voters falling to 45 percent — down from 63 percent in April.
The Democratic legislature, along with dead man walking Jon Corzine, is about to try to pull a fast one during the lame duck session.
As has been feared, the Democrats are planning to put the controversial gay marriage issue to a vote before Chris Christie takes office. My colleagues over at Conservative Majority New Jersey (formerly Conservatives with Attitude!) Sharon Soon and Michael Illions have just posted on this.
Sharon’s post mentions the following:
The New Jersey Family Policy Council has just announced that the Senate Judiciary Committee will post and vote on a gay marriage bill. The bill has been introduced by recently defeated Lieutenant Governor candidate Loretta Weinberg and openly gay Assemblyman Reed Gusciora.
While Michael’s post warns that 4 RINO Republicans are rumored to be in favor of this bill.
The names of the Gay Marriage enablers in the Republican Party should not surprise or shock anyone. They are Jennifer Beck, who once was on the short list to become Chris Christie’s LG pick until it rumored that they had discussed that possibility while he was still a US Attorney.
The next one is Sean Kean, one of the GOP Senator’s who voted to reappoint Liberal Judge Barry Albin, to the New Jersey Supreme Court.
Kip Bateman makes three. Kip voted to repeal the Death Penalty as an Assemblyman 2 years ago and also joined the above mentioned weasel Sean Kean in voting to reappoint to the New Jersey Supreme Court.
And finally, the last of the 4 is Bill Baroni. Baroni was the lone “Republican” vote and the deciding vote that saddled this State with Paid Family Leave Act.
If you are a fellow New Jerseyan who opposes gay marriage, then it’s time to start getting on the phone and telling these legislators to vote ‘NO!’
As we all know, New Jersey is in a serious fiscal crisis. Next year the state is facing a mind-boggling $8B deficit and, based on recent experience, that deficit is only likely to balloon further. This puts our new governor Mr. Christie in a real predicament – balance the budget according to state law without borrowing money and while trying to live up to his campaign promise to cut taxes.
Politically, Christie is going to be under tremendous pressure to follow through and cut taxes. The suffocating tax climate in New Jersey is one of the main reasons he was elected and property taxes were the top issue for New Jersey voters this year. Further, according to some recent polling, voters are expecting Christie to cut taxes in his first year.
The signals, though, that Christie will follow through on property tax relief so far aren’t promising.
First, Christie has shown no inclination to do anything at all about the unfair school funding formula in the state. As we witnessed during the primary with Steve Lonegan, Mr. Christie does not support changing the formula to a per pupil basis which would result in a 20% cut in property taxes.
In a column last week by Paul Mulshine, he explained that Christie is not only opposed to increasing state aid to suburban towns like Toms River, but that he also opposes ending mandates like binding arbitration:
No sooner were the votes counted than he was telling suburban voters they’re out of luck if they thought he was going to help them with their property tax bills.
That happened last week when he met with several Ocean County mayors in my old home town of Toms River. Christie scored his biggest wins in Toms River and adjacent Brick Township, which together gave him 38,000 votes toward his 100,000-vote margin of victory. The mayors of those and other towns asked him if he will deliver badly needed state aid to their towns.
“I’m not going to give Newark’s money to Toms River,’’ Christie told them.
The mayors then proceeded to tell the governor-elect that if they won’t be getting more state aid, then at least they need to be relieved of state mandates. The most costly such mandate is binding arbitration of labor disputes. The arbitrators routinely award raises that can add up to double the current cap on tax hikes, which is 4 percent.
I discussed this yesterday with Manchester Township Mayor Michael Fressola, who was at the meeting. Fressola said the police in his town now earn an average of $94,000. In the absence of state aid, homeowners have to pick up that tab.
“That’s why we were asking him to get rid of a lot of the mandates,” said Fressola. “That would in effect be the same as more state aid.”
It would indeed, but McGreevey’s response to the mayors was: “I can’t see eliminating binding arbitration.”
I’m sorry, did I say “McGreevey”? I meant “Christie.” Pro-taxpayer before the election, pro-union afterward. It’s hard to tell the two apart.
This leaves the property tax gimmick. Christie won’t be able to deliver on his promise to first, restore, then increase the rebates without borrowing or increasing the income tax which funds the rebates. Again, either more debt and fiscal peril or, on the other hand, broken campaign promises.
Herein lies the problem that so many conservatives had with Mr. Christie throughout the campaign. Yes, there was a lack of specifics, but there was also a more overriding doubt that he would have the political will and courage to address the serious structural problems with the budget.
Today, Mr. Christie is meeting with his transition team to discuss taxes. It will be interesting to see what other signals come from this meeting. Will he show any more willingness than he has to date to address the aforementioned issues? Or will we hear more generalities and platitudes?
For Mr. Christie’s sake I hope it is the former and not the latter. For if he ultimately fails to deliver on real property tax relief I believe it will to his own political peril. The people who voted for Mr. Christie are expecting no less and they will surely hold him accountable four years from now.
The time is now for bold leadership on this issue and the state’s finances in general - not timidity and sleight of hand.
A year in politics may be an eternity. As each day passes, and more and more of the radical Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda is laid before us, the wait until being able to turn the lever next November will certainly feel like it.
But just what are the prospects for a Republican takeover of Congress next year? If the Pew Research findings released yesterday are any barometer, one would have to say pretty good. In fact, the anti-incumbent sentiment uncovered by Pew Research is worse than about any time in their two decades of polling. The current climate is similar to 1994 and 2006, which should give Republicans reason for optimism. According to Pew:
The mood of America is glum. Two-thirds of the public is dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. Fully nine-in-ten say that national economic conditions are only fair or poor, and nearly two-thirds describe their own finances that way – the most since the summer of 1992. An increasing proportion of Americans say that the war in Afghanistan is not going well, and a plurality continues to oppose the health care reform proposals in Congress.
Despite the public’s grim mood, overall opinion of Barack Obama has not soured – his job approval rating of 51% is largely unchanged since July, although his approval rating on Afghanistan has declined. But opinions about congressional incumbents are another matter.
About half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected next year, while 34% say that most members of Congress should be re-elected. Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys. Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.
Support for congressional incumbents is particularly low among political independents. Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25% would like to see most members of Congress re-elected. Both measures are near all-time lows in Pew Research surveys.
Here are some key findings from Pew’s polling:
% Who Want To See Their Representative Re-Elected
11/94: 58%-Yes vs. 25% No
11/06: 55%-Yes vs. 25% No
11/09: 52%-Yes vs. 29% No
% Who Want To See Most Representatives Re-Elected
11/94: 31%-Yes vs. 51% No
11/06: 37%-Yes vs. 46% No
11/09: 34%-Yes vs. 53% No
Pew’s research also shows that Republicans are far more enthusiastic about voting next year:
…voters who plan to support Republicans next year are more enthusiastic than those who plan to vote for a Democrat. Fully 58% of those who plan to vote for a Republican next year say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 42% of those who plan to vote for a Democrat. More than half (56%) of independent voters who support a Republican in their district are very enthusiastic about voting; by contrast, just 32% of independents who plan to vote for a Democrat express high levels of enthusiasm.
And the biggest problems for Democrats is how they are bleeding independents (as was the case in last week’s NJ election which saw Christie win this key group 2:1)
Public frustration with Congress may have serious electoral implications for incumbents in the 2010 midterm elections. Only about a third (34%) of registered voters say they think most members of Congress should be re-elected next year, which is on par with ratings during the 1994 and 2006 elections. Meanwhile, just 52% of voters say they want to see their own member re-elected, approaching levels in early October 2006 (50%) and 1994 (49%).
In November 1994, 68% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans favored the re-election of their own member of Congress, which is comparable to the current figures (64% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans). But today, just 42% of independents want to see their own representative re-elected, compared with 52% of independents on the eve of the 1994 midterm elections.
Partisan feelings about incumbents were the reverse in 2006, when the GOP held majorities in the House and Senate. In November 2006, 69% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats and 45% of independents wanted to see their own member of Congress re-elected.
As with all polls, this is just one snapshot in time. But barring a 180 degree turn by the Democrats in Washington, as well as in the economy, 2010 is shaping up to be a bloodbath for blue nation.
First, allow me to offer my sincere congratulations to Mr. Christie. I wish him the best, and hope for his success, as he now faces the monumental task of repairing our very broken state. As with any politician, we the people should remain watchful and hold his feet to the fire. When our new governor is on the right course, he will deserve our full support. Conversely, if we feel he is off-course, we should responsibly and contructively say so.
With that said, here are my thoughts on yesterday’s election results.
New Jersey, in my mind, remains a deeply blue state. But even deeply blue states have a breaking point. New Jersey, this year, reached hers. This election is nothing less than a rejection of everything liberal, with voters fed up with an out-of-control, overbearing, overspending, over-taxing government.
Chris Christie’s victory was fueled by this sentiment and, despite a campaign that offered little in the way of specifics, New Jersey voters simply had had enough and opted for change. Christie successfully won over independent voters by a 2:1 margin – and conservatives pushed him well over the top, leading to a surprising 4-point win. Chris Daggett, who was well into double-digits according to some polls, faded badly and only garnered 6% of the vote.
Republicans, no doubt, are a bit euphoric today with Chris Christie’s victory. However, there is reason to temper that enthusiasm.
First and foremost, Chris Christie will still be facing a Democrat legislature. While Christie scored a significant victory, the same could not be said for the party regarding the state assembly races. In a year when the climate was as favorable as could be for Republicans in New Jersey, the party only gained one assembly seat – one.
Additionally, the open space ballot question passed despite opposition from Christie himself. While Christie won by a 4% margin, the ballot question lost by 2% (a 6% swing).
The inability to make inroads in the assembly is troubling to say the least - and speaks to a problem with the party apparatus. Whatever the NJ-GOP’s strategy is with respect to these races, it is failing – and failing miserably. With the election behind us, and the vital 2010 off-year election dead ahead, it is time for serious reflection and change for the NJ-GOP. The solution may not be a simple one, but I believe it begins with giving voters a real, tangible, conservative choice.
Party chairman, Jay Webber, is certainly in an unenviable position in this respect. With the election behind us, the question remains as to whether Jay will now begin to move the NJ-GOP in a conservative direction. Additionally, we are facing the potential prospect of primary challenges to Reps. Smith, LoBiondo and Lance for their unforgiveable Cap & Trade votes. What happened in NY-23 to Dede Scozzafava could very easily happen with any one of these members of the New Jersey congressional delegation.
The Christie victory should also teach us a lesson. Despite the misgivings among conservatives regarding Christie’s conservative credentials, on the surface he did run conservatively in many respects. He ran as a fiscal conservative, as well as a social conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage. Whether Christie governs as such is another matter. To the average voter, perception is reality; and I believe the perception was that Christie was at least moderately conservative. As such, the lesson to be learned here is that conservatives can win in New Jersey.
As we look ahead to 2010 and beyond, let’s just hope that this lesson is not lost on the NJ-GOP.
The desperate Corzine camp has been up to no good, my friends! The Democrat State Committee has been exposed for dirty tricks regarding robocalls that went out to voters in Somerset County promoting the candidacy of Chris Daggett. Here’s the original robocall (h/t SaveJersey):
Here’s the story from PolitickerNJ in which party chair Joe Cryan denies any knowledge of the calls. Yep, the DSC pays for these calls but the party chair was supposedly in the dark. Believable? Hardly.
The Democratic State Committee now admits paying for a robocall to Somerset County voters that slams Republican Chris Christie and promotes independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett.
A Democratic spokeswoman says the party’s chairman, Joe Cryan, was not aware of the robocalls when he denied that the state committee had anything to do with them yesterday afternoon.
Cryan, who told PolitickerNJ.com yesterday afternoon that the Democratic State Committee had “absolutely” nothing to do with the call, could not immediately be reached for comment.
The call angered Republicans and further fueled conspiracy theories that Daggett is in cahoots with the Corzine camp. A disclaimer at the end says it was paid for by Victory ’09, “a project of the NJDSC” (Democratic State Committee), and gave the committee’s Trenton address.
When you are done voting, it will be no time to rest on your laurels. The healthcare battle will begin in earnest this week, with the House ready to vote on a bill by the end of this week. As I have posted time and again, we the people need to stand up NOW to try to stop this.
There are a number of things you can do this week to contribute. First and foremost, Mayor Lonegan is organizing bus trips to Washington, D.C. that will leave on Thursday morning. Here is Steve’s message:
This Thursday, I will be joining Congressman Scott Garrett, Congresswoman Michelle Bachman and dozens of other national leaders on the steps of our Nation’s capitol and I need you to join me.
Together, we can stop the Obama-Palosi-Reed attack on our health care, but only if you act now.
We beat them at Town Hall meetings, we outnumbered them in phone calls and letters and every poll in America tells them the vast majority of Americans are opposed to their radical agenda. THEY JUST DON’T CARE! They have a plan for your future and you will have no say, no control, no other opportunity to fight back unless you act now.
To stop this radical attack on our nation’s future and our individual liberty I am sending buses of freedom loving Americans to Washington DC this Thursday morning for the Hands Off our Health Care rally and for meetings with House of Representatives members in the afternoon.
For departures and information go to taxpayerminute.com
We are going to flood the Congressional office building with great Americans like you and I need you there, your children need you there and your country needs you there.
Buses are now leaving from locations in Bergen County, Sussex County and Atlantic County as well as Philadelphia. I need volunteers to help organize buses, get fliers out and help in organizing this historic and challenging effort.
This is crunch time, folks. Now let’s see what we are made of.
If you can help in any way, contact me at 201 487-8844 or email steven.lonegan@afphq.org
If you can not come to D.C., Americans for Prosperity is urging people to go to the local offices of the representatives. This from AFP’s Tim Phillips:
This Thursday join our “Congressional House Call” day. It’s easy. Just go to your closest House or Senate local office at 12 Noon your local time to make sure they hear your voice one last time before the House vote. To find your closest office and to let us know you will take a stand Click Here: http://americansforprosperity.org/cong.php
We’ve got to show them they’re wrong. Join the “Congressional House Call” day this Thursday by going to your member’s district office this Thursday at 12 Noon your time. Take pictures of your visit and send them to me at TimPhillips@afp-mail.com or post them on my Facebook by clicking here http://www.facebook.com/timphillipsafp
If you cannot go in person use the link to call your member of the House and Senate at 12 Noon this Thursday and tell them you’re making a “Congressional House Call” by phone.
We’re at a crucial time in this health care battle. Please take action!
Personally, I would suggest to all of you to start contacting your representatives tomorrow. We need to put as much pressure on as possible. We can not wait around for tomorrow’s election results to pour in. And even if Chris Christie wins, it is no time to become complacent. Tomorrow’s elections are important but the most important thing going on this week is going to be taking place in the halls of Congress – where the freedoms we hold dear are going to be under a full-blown assault. As, Congressman Pence tells us here, ‘Make your voice heard!’
Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!
Here are my Election Day predictions. If I get them all right I am heading straight own to AC afterwards!
In the New Jersey governor’s race, Independent candidate Chris Daggett remains the unknown factor. Some polls have shown Daggett with as much as 15% of the vote. But my intuition tells me Christie’s recent attacks on Daggett have hurt him and with Corzine and Christie within the margin of error, many voters will not waste their vote on him upon entering that voting booth. As such I don’t see Daggett getting more than double digits – and I see long-suffering New Jersey taxpayers breaking toward Christie in what will be a squeaker. Final result: Christie 48%, Corzine 46%, Daggett 6%.
In Virginia, a swing state that turned Obama blue last year, we will witness a 180 degree turn. Republican Bob McDonnell will win in a landslide over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Prediction: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44%
Well, in NY-23, Dede Scozzafava was forced out of this race by conservatives who said she was too liberal. Now, she has proven us quite right with her endorsement of the liberal Bill Owens over conservative Doug Hoffman (Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned?). In any case, with Scozzafava remaining on the ballot one would expect her to still receive some votes. So my prediction for this race is for a Hoffman victory, albeit much closer than recent races in this district. Final results: Hoffmann 51%, Owens 45%, Scozzafava 4%.
After some 9 months worth of campaigning, starting with the Republican primary season, Judgment Day is at hand in the New Jersey governor’s race.
In fact, like many New Jersey political bloggers, this campaign really started the moment The Anointed One, Barack Obama, was declared the winner of last year’s presidential election. And like many fellow Republicans and conservatives, my goal at that time was to do everything possible to oust Governor Corzine from office.
As this crucial election now falls upon us, I have come to the conclusion that this still remains my goal – and ought to be the goal of anyone who cares about the future of this state.
Like so many of my fellow conservatives, this race has left me troubled and conflicted. Little did I know a year ago just how much this race would divide us. The split between the Establishment of the party and grassroots conservatives is one that has reared its head – and likely will continue in the days and months ahead regardless of who wins on Tuesday. This battle, of course, is by no means limited to New Jersey. It stretches up to New York’s 23rd district, to a coming Senate primary battle in Florida, and likely into 2012’s presidential primary. I still firmly believe that the only way forward for the Republican Party, if it wishes to re-establish trust and a majority status, is by adopting conservative values and principles. And, ultimately, that means putting forth conservative candidates.
In this respect, this voter has been skeptical, perplexed, and, admittedly at times, downright disappointed with Mr. Christie. His campaign has left much to be desired in strategy, execution and philosophy. On various issues of great importance to New Jerseyans, such as COAH, property taxes and state aid to schools, I remain unconvinced that he will address them to my satisfaction and to the satisfaction of my fellow conservatives. On the other hand, I do believe he will improve our business climate, perhaps even enact some meaningful educational reforms via initiatives like vouchers and promoting more charter schools and, hopefully, live up to his promise to nominate conservative judges to the bench. Above all, though, I believe he will at least stop the bleeding caused by the destructive fiscal policies of Corzine, McGreevey and the Democrat-controlled legislature.
The alternative – a second term for Jon Corzine – is one I believe this state cannot bear. Jon Corzine has had four years to prove himself and he has failed miserably. By every measure, his term has been a disaster for New Jersey. Under his watch, the state has firmly established itself as the worst in the nation for taxes. He has shown himself to be disdainful of the plight of taxpayers while he protects government workers and curries favor with public sector unions like the NJEA. He will continue to appoint far left judges to the NJ Supreme Court – a court that, in the past, has handed down the terrible Mt. Laurel and Abbott decisions. A court that will have much to say on these matters, as well issues like gay marriage, in the future (if not near future).
The view of many conservatives – that four more years of destruction under Corzine would increase the chances of a conservative being a viable candidate in 2013 – I do believe has merit. Some lessons may well need to be learned the hard way. But that is an awfully tough path to choose when the stakes right now are so high. Four more years of Jon Corzine’s policies likely will lead New Jersey to financial ruin. If New Jersey fails, all of her citizens will likewise suffer. This is a choice I cannot make in good conscience.
Other factors, also, are difficult to ignore. At the national level, we are witnessing the most radical left-wing agenda in our history. We are painfully close to witnessing a government takeover of our healthcare system by a bunch of ruthless, power-hungry, liberal statists who have no regard for our constitution and the nation’s founding.
While I do believe that when next year’s mid-term elections finally arrive, voters will base their decision on issues other than this New Jersey gubernatorial election, a Chris Christie victory (along with victories in Virginia and NY-23) very well could contribute to building momentum for a Republican resurgence.
In the near-term, it could well damage Obama and help defeat the healthcare legislation before Congress. Democrat ‘blue dogs’ and other fence sitters may well ‘read the tea leaves’ and not want to risk their seats by voting for this agenda.
If circumstances were different, and the polls suggested Mr. Christie were on his way to a runaway victory or, conversely, a sound defeat, lodging a ‘protest vote’ would be a far easier choice. But this is not the case. If the polls are to be believed, this election will be a nail biter and Mr. Christie needs every vote possible.
Just yesterday President Obama said this of Governor Corzine:
He’s one of the best partners I have in the White House. We work together…We know our work is far from over.
Is this the kind of person we really want to remain in office? Knowing what we know now, are there any among us who would not prefer John McCain to be our President despite the fact that a McCain presidency might have been bad for the conservative movement?
Chris Christie is by no means my ideal candidate. I would much prefer to pull the lever for on Tuesday for Steve Lonegan (or even Jason Cullen for that matter). But given our current circumstances, and after much soul searching, such a vote in my mind cannot be justified.
On this Judgment Day, there is only one choice. We must terminate Jon Corzine.
Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!
A little firestorm has arisen over the past day or so between Independent candidate Chris Daggett and Sarah Palin.
In a radio interview Daggett claimed that national Republicans were pressuring him to drop from the race.
Former New Jersey Environmental Commissioner Chris Daggett said Wednesday morning he received pressure from national Republicans to drop out of the governor’s race.
Republicans worry that Daggett, an independent candidate who is polling in the double-digits, could take enough votes away from former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) to give Gov. Jon Corzine (D) a second term.
Subsequent to this, the Daggett campaign also started pointing the finger specifically at Sarah Palin. This Twitter message appears on the Daggett Twitter page:
RT @KevinGass: I could not make this up. Sarah Palin just asked Chris to pull out of race. Republicans getting scared much? #standup4nj
Let’s consider the governor’s race in New Jersey. The state has the highest tax burden in the country and the incumbent Democrat governor has only added to the economic burden. He eliminated property tax rebates for middle class homeowners while the sales tax increased. Altogether, taxes on the people in the region have increased by billions of dollars. It’s no surprise that New Jersey has the highest unemployment rate in the region! Thankfully, there is an alternative. Residents there will be better off under an administration that understands the benefits that result when workers are allowed to keep more of what they earn. Watch New Jersey’s economy come alive under new leadership that will put government back on the side of the people! Chris Christie promises this new leadership.
Fortunately, New Jersey’s Democrat governor is being held accountable with the RGA spending $7 million in the New York and Philadelphia media markets telling the truth about a liberal administrative record while highlighting New Jersey’s tax-hiking ways and reminding voters there is an alternative! The NY and Philly markets are the most expensive in the nation though, so the RGA is requesting help to stay on the air. Visit http://www.rga.org/initiatives/comeback-fund/.
Despite what candidate Chris Daggett is claiming, I have never contacted him or his campaign. I have never asked him to drop out of the NJ Governor’s race. Now, if a politician is going to play loose with facts like this, the electorate needs to know it.
So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett’s claims are false. I’ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it…
- Sarah Palin
Well, so much for Daggett playing up the idea that he’s more politically pure than Christie and Corzine. This incident shows us that he’s anything but.
Cross-posted at Red County and Conservatives with Attitude!
