Garden State Patriot

Lonegan campaing pollster Rick Shaftan releeased an internal poll to the press today claiming the GOP primary race is a dead heat. Not surprisingly, some questioned the results of theses internals. Via Politicker NJ:

So is the race really as competitive as the Lonegan poll — which was conducted by the firm of Lonegan chief strategist Rick Shaftan — says it is?

Any internal campaign poll released to the press should be taken with a grain of salt, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

“It’s a piece of propaganda.  That’s what all campaign communications are,” he said.

Murray said that the information available from the poll raised a couple red flags: that the poll publishes results within a tenth of a percentage point, giving it “an aura of more precision than these polls have,” and that, using a statewide sample size of 687 voters, it includes results for just one legislative district in northwest New Jersey.

“It raises the question for me if it over-sampled from the more conservative areas,” said Murray.

Shaftan, for his part, said that “the sample was drawn randomly and no part of the state was singled out for overcalling.”  He included numbers within a tenth of a percentage point for emphasis.

As for the 23rd Legislative District, Shaftan said the trend in Northwest New Jersey, which between Morris, Sussex, Warren and Hunterdon Counties accounts for about 25% of Republican primary turnout, was very much in Lonegan’s favor.

Moreover, Shaftan said, the survey did not describe the candidates before asking whether respondents preferred Lonegan or Christie.  In fact, he said his poll’s method of only polling Republicans who voted in at least two of the last primaries, if anything, favored Christie.

“Somebody who is not a two-of-five and who is voting in the primary is probably a Lonegan voter,” he said.  “New people come to us.  They don’t go to Christie.”

Shaftan disagreed that Schundler’s 2001 victory had anything to do with his opponents’ ballot switch, and said that Lonegan is running better at this point in the campaign than Schundler was running against Franks.

Christie Campaign Manager Bill Stepien argued that the poll’s results in Morris County, where Christie is from, diminishes its credibility.

“A poll that shows Lonegan up nearly two to one in Chris’s home county?  Seems a bit fishy,” he said.  “The next thing you’ll tell me is that Lonegan’s own consultant conducted the poll.”

Here’s my take. I do b

So is the race really as competitive as the Lonegan poll — which was conducted by the firm of Lonegan chief strategist Rick Shaftan — says it is?

Any internal campaign poll released to the press should be taken with a grain of salt, said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

“It’s a piece of propaganda.  That’s what all campaign communications are,” he said.

Murray said that the information available from the poll raised a couple red flags: that the poll publishes results within a tenth of a percentage point, giving it “an aura of more precision than these polls have,” and that, using a statewide sample size of 687 voters, it includes results for just one legislative district in northwest New Jersey.

“It raises the question for me if it over-sampled from the more conservative areas,” said Murray.

Shaftan, for his part, said that “the sample was drawn randomly and no part of the state was singled out for overcalling.”  He included numbers within a tenth of a percentage point for emphasis.

As for the 23rd Legislative District, Shaftan said the trend in Northwest New Jersey, which between Morris, Sussex, Warren and Hunterdon Counties accounts for about 25% of Republican primary turnout, was very much in Lonegan’s favor.

Moreover, Shaftan said, the survey did not describe the candidates before asking whether respondents preferred Lonegan or Christie.  In fact, he said his poll’s method of only polling Republicans who voted in at least two of the last primaries, if anything, favored Christie.

“Somebody who is not a two-of-five and who is voting in the primary is probably a Lonegan voter,” he said.  “New people come to us.  They don’t go to Christie.”

Shaftan disagreed that Schundler’s 2001 victory had anything to do with his opponents’ ballot switch, and said that Lonegan is running better at this point in the campaign than Schundler was running against Franks.

Christie Campaign Manager Bill Stepien argued that the poll’s results in Morris County, where Christie is from, diminishes its credibility.

“A poll that shows Lonegan up nearly two to one in Chris’s home county?  Seems a bit fishy,” he said.  “The next thing you’ll tell me is that Lonegan’s own consultant conducted the poll.”

Here’s my take. I’m not sure if it is as tight as the Lonegan camp’s internals are showing, but I do believe that Mayor Lonegan is continuing to gain on Christie and will continue to do so.

Ultimately, this primary is going to be decided by turnout and whether the grassroots conservatives will vote en masse for Mayor Lonegan on June 2nd.  

It’s important to also keep in mind that many voters have yet to take a full interest in this primary. With the debates right around the corner, though, that should certainly change things. By mid-may I think we’ll have a very clear idea of how this race truly stands.

Cross-posted at Red County.