New Jersey Could Lose Congressional Seat In 2012
If current trends continue in New Jersey, where the oppressive tax climate has been driving people out of the state, New Jersey will lose a Congressional seat by 2012. The state’s delegation would drop from 13 to 12 representatives in the House. From the Bergen Record:
New Jersey will send one less representative to Congress in 2012 if population trends around the country continue through the end of the decade, a new study shows.
New Jersey came up just 15,187 people short of the population needed to keep its 13th seat in the House of Representatives and its delegation would shrink to 12, based on Census Bureau population estimates for 2008 analyzed last week by a Virginia consulting firm.
The analysis found New Jersey and Michigan joining six other states, including New York and Pennsylvania, that would lose House seats because population growth has lagged behind states in the South and West.
Of course, this would set up a serious redistricting battle in New Jersey. If Democrats are in power after the 2010 elections they will certainly target Republicans such as Scott Garrett.
But politics and Supreme Court precedents designed to protect minority voting rights will play as big a role as demographics in the final district map. A contraction of the state delegation could set up a battle between two incumbents, but Baker said it’s also possible one member of the delegation will choose to retire.
Already, Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill and Trenton are discussing various scenarios. Not surprisingly, Democrats would like to see two Republicans face off in a primary.
Among the scenarios mentioned by one senior House Democratic aide was a northwestern district where two Republicans, such as Rep. Scott Garrett of Wantage and Leonard Lance of Clinton Township, would face off. Another scenario would pit Garrett or Lance against Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-Harding.
While Republicans will try to prevent such a scenario, they won’t have much leverage if they remain a minority party in the state. The bottom line is this is yet another example of the just how important next year’s Governor’s race is, as are the state legislature elections. It won’t be enough to fully turn this state around merely by having a Republican in the State House. The Republicans really need a sweeping victory next year to prevent losing a Representative in Congress.
